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  1. #1
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar

    How long can a good strategy last? !!!

    Hi guys and beautiful ladies!

    I've been watching lots of Binary Options and Forex videos from YouTube and often I watched different traders say that a strategy can't last forever. A good strategy may bring in good results for several years but eventually a trader must move on to a newer strategy. I don't know if this is true but most of these guys who says that good strategies become obsolete are often selling their charting services or selling software but some of them do look like our normal everyday traders.

    Do good strategies and homemade holy grails really have expiry dates like milk

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronnel View Post
    Hi guys and beautiful ladies!

    I've been watching lots of Binary Options and Forex videos from YouTube and often I watched different traders say that a strategy can't last forever. A good strategy may bring in good results for several years but eventually a trader must move on to a newer strategy. I don't know if this is true but most of these guys who says that good strategies become obsolete are often selling their charting services or selling software but some of them do look like our normal everyday traders.

    Do good strategies and homemade holy grails really have expiry dates like milk
    I've heard that too but it is just BS coming from newbies who got lucky for a period of time, made some money doing something
    they had no idea about over and over again and when they lost they blamed the strategy. I think that it is only true for mechanical strategies.
    The questions is easy to answer if you remember that a good trader
    relies not only on a mechanical strategy and the indicators but on his own analysis which during the time keep developing. For example, take any chart
    and look at decades after decades of support resistance data, you can see recurring S/R levels over the past 10-15 years. So why would it suddenly not work
    to use "price action" in your analysis? So in conclusion, yes a mechanical strategy based on no experience and only indicators and no deep analysis of the charts
    will only have a "lucky strike" for a short while and then you will run out of that luck and pay back the money you've earned.
    But from what I have seen in your diary, you don't belong in that group so no need to worry about that!
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  4. #3
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    ... Furthermore, there is no such thing as a good strategy, only a good strategist/analyst and he can
    last forever because he always develops and adapts and knowledge has no expiry date.
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  5. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I wouldn't say they expire, but they do have time frames. Say for instance I used a signal on the weekly charts, it may last for several candles (a couple of weeks) in which I can move down to the daily charts or the hourly charts and takes signals in the direction of the trend. Eventually the signals will stop working, why? because the signal on the weekly chart ran out, the time frame was over, this doesn't mean the strategy expired, just that the current use needs to be adapted to the new environment.

  6. Thanks Ronnel thanked this post
  7. #5
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Okane View Post
    I've heard that too but it is just BS coming from newbies who got lucky for a period of time, made some money doing something
    they had no idea about over and over again and when they lost they blamed the strategy. I think that it is only true for mechanical strategies.
    The questions is easy to answer if you remember that a good trader
    relies not only on a mechanical strategy and the indicators but on his own analysis which during the time keep developing. For example, take any chart
    and look at decades after decades of support resistance data, you can see recurring S/R levels over the past 10-15 years. So why would it suddenly not work
    to use "price action" in your analysis? So in conclusion, yes a mechanical strategy based on no experience and only indicators and no deep analysis of the charts
    will only have a "lucky strike" for a short while and then you will run out of that luck and pay back the money you've earned.
    But from what I have seen in your diary, you don't belong in that group so no need to worry about that!


    Yes you are totally right about support and resistance because looking back in time I saw S/R peaks that happen time and time again. S/R do reoccur again and again displaying a strong picture that it didn't happen out of coincidence.

    Actually I also believe that these guys who says that good strategies have expiry are trading mechanically or are newbies who lacks BO education or traders who are just too lazy to plot trend lines. It's just funny to see how these guys rely mostly on a strategy and move on to another strategy because they failed trading mechanically. What I think we all need is a good strategy and the effort to put some of or brain cells to good use.

    Hoping to climb up the steep strategist/analyst ladder someday

  8. #6
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    I wouldn't say they expire, but they do have time frames. Say for instance I used a signal on the weekly charts, it may last for several candles (a couple of weeks) in which I can move down to the daily charts or the hourly charts and takes signals in the direction of the trend. Eventually the signals will stop working, why? because the signal on the weekly chart ran out, the time frame was over, this doesn't mean the strategy expired, just that the current use needs to be adapted to the new environment.
    Eventually the signals will stop working, why? because the signal on the weekly chart ran out, the time frame was over, this doesn't mean the strategy expired, just that the current use needs to be adapted to the new environment.
    Wow, this is SOLID! Thanks Michael!

  9. #7
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    I've been using hourly/daily charts.I use hourly charts for 4-8 time frame expiry.Daily charts I use for a three days expiry/a week expiry. It is needed to take a signal.

    I use Bollinger Bands and should wait the candle closed below lower Bollinger Bands.It is signal for put option. If price will closed above the upper Bollinger Bands it is signal for call option.

    It happened that price consolidation in place/trend correction with small pause. But strong rising/declining trend is forming.

    For shorter time frame expiry 5-15 minutes I use M1 charts. M5-M15 charts I used for 30 minutes to 1H time frame expiry. I traded month time frame expiry and I used weekly charts.

    I always use history charts like double peaks/double bottom. It is included support/resistance trend line.News has been changed trend line.

  10. Thanks Davidkitdave, Ronnel thanked this post
  11. #8
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by milos View Post
    I've been using hourly/daily charts.I use hourly charts for 4-8 time frame expiry.Daily charts I use for a three days expiry/a week expiry. It is needed to take a signal.

    I use Bollinger Bands and should wait the candle closed below lower Bollinger Bands.It is signal for put option. If price will closed above the upper Bollinger Bands it is signal for call option.

    It happened that price consolidation in place/trend correction with small pause. But strong rising/declining trend is forming.

    For shorter time frame expiry 5-15 minutes I use M1 charts. M5-M15 charts I used for 30 minutes to 1H time frame expiry. I traded month time frame expiry and I used weekly charts.

    I always use history charts like double peaks/double bottom. It is included support/resistance trend line.News has been changed trend line.
    So I think this means that you have been using your strategies for a long a time and doesn't have an expiry
    Many thanks for sharing your strategy especially how you use the charts. Thanks for the double peaks/double bottom, I will really have to study that more.

    Cheers milos!

  12. #9
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Binary Guru View Post
    i am using nothing but only Brain and result speaks itself
    Attachment 3261

    Lots of ITM there, That's awesome!

  13. #10
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronnel View Post
    Hi guys and beautiful ladies!

    I've been watching lots of Binary Options and Forex videos from YouTube and often I watched different traders say that a strategy can't last forever. A good strategy may bring in good results for several years but eventually a trader must move on to a newer strategy. I don't know if this is true but most of these guys who says that good strategies become obsolete are often selling their charting services or selling software but some of them do look like our normal everyday traders.

    Do good strategies and homemade holy grails really have expiry dates like milk

    I think Okane explain it the best possible way. There are good or bad strategists and traders, not good or bad strategy.

    There are some strategies based on trend following, pattern recognition or elliote wave that can be used forever, but they give only the refer points; they don’t say exactly how to apply this knowledge. If you mean a strategy with mechanical rules like buy when RSI is above… and MACD line crosses from below or sell when RSI is below… This kind of things will never work for too long period of time. First of all they work only if the market like them, if the conditions are appropriate. If you don’t have the experienced eye to tell when the conditions are good and when they are not good, you will never be able to define when to use a strategy and when to not use it.
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

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