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  1. #1
    Junior Member

    Short EUR/USD in 2015? !!!

    hey everyone, my favorite pair is EUR/USD, anyway i came along this article below and i thought it will be a good idea if we can here the expert opinion about it. what do you guys think about it?

    The euro dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is forecast to fall significantly through the course of 2015.

    So confident are Morgan Stanley in their long-term prediction that selling the euro dollar has been labelled the 'top trade' for 2015. Before we hear their rationale for the call, here are the rates at the time of this articles most recent update:

    At the time of writing the euro to dollar exchange rate is trading 0.07 pct higher on a day-to-day basis having reached 1.2318.
    The euro to pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) is meanwhile 0.06 pct up at 0.7854.
    The above market rates are not available for international payments as your bank will shift the rate in their favour. However, an independent FX specialist will undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering as much as 5% more currency in some instances. Find out how.

    2015 Will be Tough for the Euro

    Morgan Stanley give the following reasons for their bearish approach to the EUR/USD in 2015:

    EUR remains at risk from global deflationary pressure, given the relative openness of the eurozone economy and high debt levels.
    The eurozone growth outlook is also set to remain subdued, keeping market expectations for further ECB action heightened.
    However, we believe that the ECB policy measures taken already will be enough to keep EUR under pressure over the coming year.
    Portfolio outflows and EUR being used as a funding currency are consistent with a longer-term structural decline.
    "We favour selling EURUSD, targeting 1.12 for end-2015," says a note issued by Morgan Stanley, "risks to our bearish EUR view could come from central banks globally expanding their currency reserves, leading to renewed allocation into EUR".

    Will the ECB Send the Euro Exchange Rate Lower?

    Market participants appear reluctant to position too aggressively for the main event of December for the Euro - the ECB policy decision due out on the 4th of the month.

    "Our BNP Paribas positioning analysis suggesting that EUR shorts remain quite moderate at -9. This may reflect conflicting signals from ECB policy makers in recent weeks, with council member Lautenschlaeger speaking out forcefully against sovereign QE over the weekend," BNP Paribas say in a note to clients.

    However, analysts reckon recent comments from President Draghi and Vice President Constancio are likely to prove more instructive.

    "We also note that EUR inflation expectations have continued to collapse in the aftermath of last week’s OPEC meeting, putting more pressure on the ECB to respond this week," BNP Paribas say.

    BNP Paribas are sellers of the EUR/USD targeting longer-term declines to 1.18.

  2. #2
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    There are a lot of speculation on this subject. EUR/USD will be dropped to 1.10 or lower 0.93 in 2015. Believe me its doesn't matter for binary options trading for EUR/USD.

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