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  1. #1
    Solid Member uaktags's Avatar

    ApexInvesting Core Signals - Backtest (Nadex specific) !!!

    So this is neither an advertisement nor a recommendation (for or against) ApexInvesting's Core Signal service. My friend introduced me to Apex as a way to get really aquainted with the Nadex platform as they appear to be one of, if not THE, largest company teaching how to trade with Nadex and developes their own tools to use with NinjaTrader. Every member gets access to their Core signals, which is suppose to be a learning tool, "Set and Forget" is what they state alot, and is expected to teach new members how to use Nadex to place a trade, place and exit, etc. They don't advertise it as a money maker, or anything for skilled users, it's suppose to be that you just learn and hopefully make a little money to start.

    I decided to start compiling their results to see how they've been doing. So far, I've only compiled from Aug 1 until now, but expect to go back as far as I can to get a good feel for how their service is.

    Google Drive attachment

    A few things to understand about their system:
    -They tell you a direction (Buy/Sell), a strike point (1.2322), and an expiration time (3pm).
    -Once your order is filled (because if it's not in range than it will be pending) you're also told to put an exit in. The exit will again be pending until it's filled.
    -They have a rule about volatility in the last 10minutes, if they feel it's too much movement, they'll tell you to dump out for either Profit/Loss.
    -There's only 1 signal a day, it's given at 11am and expires at whatever the early "Daily" slot is (1:15pm, 3pm, 4:15pm).
    -Direction of Buy has a set entry at 57$ or less, Direction of Sell has a set entry of 43$ or more.
    -All exits are set to the $95/$5 dollar range. (if a Buy, you buy in with a strike at 57$ and you'll exit at $95. System is set for a minimum return of $38dollars if signal is correct and you enter at the minimum stated)

    A few things about my compilation:
    - ITM means that at some point your exit was achieved, doesn't have to be at expiration of the option.
    - NF means that the strike was Not Filled, but the Signal was ITM. So if they said buy at 57$ or less, the option never went to 57$ at 11am or later. Perhaps at 11 when the signal came out it was at 58$ and continued to rise. Since it never lowered, your order never processed. Had you broke the rules, and tried for a lesser profit of 37 or less, you would have hit the 5$ strike to exit ITM.
    - OTM means the strike was hit at some point, and by the 10minute window, it was so out of reach, you were locked in for max loss.
    -Cancelled means exactly that, I don't have the information to prove if it ended ITM or not, but they told you to cancel, so you either took a small loss or a small profit, but their system felt it best to dump out.

    As of 11/11/2014 and compiling from Aug 1st 2014 until today, here are the percentages:
    Total Trades 72
    Total ITM: 23
    Total OTM: 22
    Total Not Filled: 23
    Cancelled: 4

    % ITM 0.3194444444
    % ITM AND NotFilled 0.6388888889
    % OTM 0.3055555556
    % Cancelled 0.05555555556

  2. #2
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    That looks not so impressive, even I can say too bad for signals.
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

  3. #3
    Solid Member uaktags's Avatar
    Indeed, I do hope to continue my test to get further results of 6mon to a year, but I don't expect any greater than 65% average.

    I should reiterate on their defense that they repeatingly state that the signals serve a specific purpose to teach a new nadex-er how to place trades, exits, and navigate the system using the signal as a guide.

    Personally I wish their "guide" was more accurate, but its their business model so I can only review and gripe.

    From what I've gathered via the chatroom, the signals are based off of 3year back tested data combined into a special algorithm.... They don't take fundamentals into consideration, and the signals are "Set and Forget" for the trader. You only do what the signal says:Enter and Exit.

    Also don't take this as a review for their teachings or their ninja trader plugins. Only their Core Signals. Personally I love a few of their indicators and am working to port their idea to MT, but their signals could be better.

  4. #4
    Veteran Member Dan21's Avatar
    They may have good job in preparing those core signals, but I don’t believe it is something extraordinary. In best case this is a break even strategy. My personal believe is that it is not possible to achieve great results with a pure mechanical system. Human discretion and market reading is always necessary.

  5. #5
    Solid Member uaktags's Avatar
    Yea, that's my big gripe with it. Since they're targeting their new members, they should really tie in their Core signals with the advance teachings of human discretion. Their system mathematically delivers a signal, for new members it's a set and forget approach to learn Nadex. Awesome, it doesn't provide a 100% winner or even a profitable service in terms of above 65-70%, but it gets a new trader's foot in the door as they're learning the advance topics of trading rather than just guessing.

    What I wish is that they'd tie in fundamentals, atleast on a sidenote for intermediate and advance users. Give notes for early outs for scrapers, or adjustments for subsequent trades. These would all maintain their current purpose of Set and Forget 60-65% for new comers to want to learn more, would offer only 1 core trade a day, but would also teach users the mechanics of being a human trader that makes conscious decision on market movements, news, etc.

    Updated today: 4th straight OTM signal equalling 8 OTMs out of the past 10 Trading days, with 2 Not filled.

  6. #6
    Solid Member uaktags's Avatar
    So i've updated to get this week started.

    we're now looking at a 60% accuracy since 1 Aug.

    I've also included in the analysis a breakdown of each asset, the number of times said asset was given a signal, the percentage of those signals being JUST ITM, and the percentage of those signals being ITM AND also Not Filled (meaning the signal came too late and the price never hit their entry bid of $57Buy or $43Sell.

    So far, it can be pretty much assumed to NEVER listen to their USTech 100, US500, USDCAD.
    On the otherhand, you may be in luck listening to their EURUSD, GBPUSD, and perhaps gold (though if tomorrow turns out OTM, then their accuracy falls to 60% from 70% currently. Also this assumption relies on taking less reward and more risk, since they're accurate on trend, but signals come too late (by an unknown margin).

    A thing to take away is, again, Not Filled (or NF) means that they gave a strike price of say Buy Gold @ 1.234 (3pm). All signals are given at 11am sharp, and all signals are expected to be taken at 57$ bid for a buy, 43$ bid for a sell. Not Filled means that at 11, the Ask price was at 57.5$ and NEVER hit 57$ from 11am until expiration at 3pm. So if you had adjusted your contract (which is against their set/forget rules of the signal) then you would have expired ITM. BUT 57$ entry for a 43$ profit is already a 75% payout...adjusting to say 60 or 65 to profit with 40/35 dollars and you're looking at only a 66%/53% payout respectively.
    Last edited by uaktags; 11-25-2014 at 07:49 AM.

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