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  1. #1
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar

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    GBP/USD Forecast 24 Oct 2014

    The GBP/USD pair started trading on Thursday around levels close to 1.6040. The has been little evidence of a directional move as the flows were subdued in the beginning of the session as the all important UK retail sales number was heading towards the wires.

    And it did come out at 08:30 GMT, revealing a larger than expected decline by 0.3% sending the British pound sharply lower to test Wednesday's lows around 1.6010. As the pair spiked lower towards 1.6000, some shy bids emerged to drive the British currency higher towards 1.6050 as the trading kicked off in New York.

    As US stocks rallied materially there was ample dollar demand particularly against the Japanese yen and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There was not much merit behind the pair to make dramatic moves before the last trading day of the week tomorrow, as news were subdued and the main activity focusing on the Dow.

    From what we can tell from the recent price behaviors we would be keen to buy daily calls for tomorrow's expiration at 20:00 GMT because we didn't see the GBP/USD pair break below 1.6000. While we acknowledge the risks of that happening tomorrow, for now it looks distant.

    On the flipside if we see a drop and a sustained close on an hourly basis below 1.6000 we would be focusing our attention to the downside and buying daily puts for Friday's expiration, which is also the last expiration this week. Stay profitable and cautious in your last trading day this week, good luck!

    Chart
    Last edited by Matthew Taylor; 12-01-2014 at 11:59 PM.

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  3. #2
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    Amazon Forecast 24 Oct 2014

    There is a big opportunity here, but we will also need some luck in order to be able to trade this properly. According to current data which has been provided by the after hours market current share prices are trading much lower than the close in New York around $313.

    The price of Amazon's stock dropped as low as $280 and binary options traders who are willing to take some risks should be buying at this level when the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow. The price hasn't visited levels lower than $285 since May of this year, when the firm's shares were shedding value rapidly.

    In my views the product mix which Amazon is currently offering to the market is solid, but the company has been spending too much money on questionable developments such as the Amazon phone. That device never really took off and it took hours of software development and a slew of costs related to manufacturing to bring it to market.

    The company's CEO Jeff Bezos has the opportunity to explain to investors the reasons behind the fall in prices of the company in today's earnings call. That said, we may not even open tomorrow around $280 if he is good at that. However there is not much which can deter our expectation for a rally tomorrow New York morning.

    The only point where we would give up to trade the stock is if it opens at or below $278 dollars and doesn't close above $280 in the first half hour of trading. The sentiment of the market is bullish and we tend to go with the forces which drive the broad stock market. Hence our call to buy daily calls with expiration at 20:00 GMT tomorrow.

  4. #3
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    USD/JPY Forecast 06 Nov 2014

    Japanese yen continues on its way lower

    The USD /JPY pair has been on a relentless rise and many traders are voicing opinions that this can not go on forever. We beg to differ as the pair in our views is heading towards 125.00 in the long term. But until we get there there will inevitably be some setbacks.
    Starting from the macroeconomic analysis there is a lot to be said about the Bank of Japan's monetary policy action last week - the Japanese central bank decided to increase the pace of money printing and on top of that it promised to start buying riskier assets such as stocks and mortgages.

    All of this led to a huge spike in volatility which resulted in the USD/JPY breaking to the upside and leaving everything in its path in shambles as the market relentlessly started selling Japanese yen and buying us dollars. The US dollar has benefited to day from a new form of risk sentiment which involved the midterm elections.

    The Republican party has won a Senate majority and is now in full control of both houses of the US parliament. There is not telling how this might actually affect the economy in the long run, but generally republicans are perceived by the markets as more sound fiscal policy.

    Looking at the charts, we are seeing few opportunities to explain what comes next. Its pretty much been a steady rise in a straight line up. What is missing form the picture is a new batch of data from the US, which we will get eventually on Friday.

    However our view is that we can make a trade tomorrow if the price drops towards 114.20. We would be buying daily calls there for the experts at 20:00 GMT, aiming to secure a rebound just before the session closes. On the flip side only a break below 114.00 would open the door for the price to go lower by the close tomorrow.

    USD/JPY Trading Chart

  5. #4
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    The euro setting itself for a move higher on Tuesday

    As the final month of the year has started, we are seeing some serious moves taking place in binary options on the EUR/USD forex pair. While the European Central Bank prepares for its last meeting of the year on Thursday, the US data from the holiday season is weighing on the US dollar at this point in time.

    The Euro has been fairly resilient in light of the weak economic data which came out of the Euro Zone this morning.The manufacturing PMI data from Germany came in at 49.5, which indicates that during the month of November the sector has actually contracted (this is conditional on above or below the 50 mark)

    After this disappointing release, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Italy also came in lower than expected which proved to be a crucial take away for economists. Many now claim that unless the Italian government engages in a substantial labor market reform, there won't be chances for much growth in the long term.

    Despite the data headwinds, the single European currency has shot higher today, topping out around 1.2506 before pulling back towards 1.2470 after influential U.S. central banker Dudley said that a rate hike in the United States in the first half of 2015 seems a reasonable scenario.

    The markets have replied with US dollar buying and the EURUSD pair is still currently trading around 1.2470. However we are holding the view that this is only temporary, so in trading on Tuesday we are looking to buy daily calls should the price go lower than 1.2450.

    A reverse of this scenario would be a break below 1.2420 on a sustained hourly basis. With the main support line for the EUR/USD forex pair somewhere between 1.2420 and 1.2430, we would be buying daily puts on a break below.

    On the upside, the main challenge for the pair remains a test above 1.2510, which will open the door for a move towards 1.2550 and 1.2600. To sum up, for now, as mentioned earlier, we would be looking to buy daily calls around 1.2450 on the EUR/USD.

    Open EURUSD chart

  6. #5
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    GBP/USD Forecast 03 Dec 2014

    The British pound is consolidating before its next move
    The British pound has been rallying modestly this morning after hitting a daily low around 1.5620 in early European trading. The main reason for the rally has been the optimistic picture drawn by the data set released from the UK this morning, however the US dollar remains resilient.

    The latest move in the GBP/USD forex pair is somewhat weighing on the current market sentiment, however it will take a more substantial move in order for us to pick a market direction with confidence. The pair is stuck within a range and we would like to see a breakout in order to buy our binary options.

    The UK's services PMI number has improved markedly to 58.6 after dropping somewhat during the previous month (56.2). The number was initially dismissed by market participants, however after about an hour the GBP/USD biying picked up steam to drive the pair closer towards 1.5700.

    I hold no illusions that most of you have listened an ECB press conference before, this is why I will advise you to use the price to guide your decisions. A strong break above 1.2340 would mean that there will be no immediate quantitative easing on the cards and buying daily calls is recommended.

    Open GBP/USD chart
    Last edited by Matthew Taylor; 12-04-2014 at 01:26 PM.

  7. #6
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    EUR/USD Forecast 04 Dec 2014

    EUR/USD gearing for its next move as the ECB leaves interest rates unchanged

    The European Central Bank has just announced that it is leaving interest rates unchanged and traders are looking forward to the press conference by the President Mario Draghi who will unveil the next course of rates going forward and clarify the stance of the bank towards any further bond buying.

    The Euro currency has been consolidating its losses throughout the Asian and European trading session so far. The European Central Bank has left rates unchanged and Mario Draghi will take the helm and push the EUR/USD pair into its next direction in about 20 minutes.

    Before such a risky event we advise binary options traders to look carefully at the opportunities presented for them and pick the direction where the market goes to. It all depends on what Mr Draghi says now so don't fight the ECB, just let the words of its president guide the market and follow it.

    Trading Chart

  8. #7
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    GBP/USD Forecast 09 Dec 2014

    British pound poised for a rally against the US dollar

    The British pound has performed well on Monday and we are holding the view here, at Binary Options Post that this rally is the first of a couple of days of nigher closes. As the UK interest rates path clears out we are looking at the GBP/USD pair halting its recent decline due to speculation about the Federal reserve hiking rates.

    The GBP/USD currency pair has traded in a very interesting way throughout the day with the Britihs pound coming up on top and rallying some 0.5% and reversing its recent fortunes after the amazing non-farm payrolls report which the U.S. department of labor unveiled last Friday.

    The pair started the day marking a new multi-month low around 1.5540, which was neglected by the bears and skipped as a factor in early London trading as the British pound rallied strongly throughout the whole day pretty much.

    The decline during the Asian session was only repeated towards the end of U.S. trading, but the GBP/USD pair retreated only mildly to test the support level around 1.5645. Subsequently, the base held at that level and we are currently seeing a modest rebound towards 1.5655.

    Check out the trading chart

  9. #8
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    EUR/USD Forecast 10 Dec 2014

    Euro gearing for another leg higher this morning

    As risky assets across the board are being sold off, short positions in the Euro currency have also been diminishing in recent sessions. The EUR/USD exchange rate has marked quite a rally yesterday, however it proved to be short lived. After soaring initially towards 1.2450, the pair ended New York trading around 1.2380.

    The main factor behind the US dollar weakness has been the sentiment on the global stock markets. Yesterday the Athens stock exchange has fallen 13% triggering liquidation of long positions across assets in the whole wide European Union stock markets.

    With liquidity in the Euro Zone drying up, despite the persisting negative environment, the pair has benefitted from flows back into the single European currency. With the EUR/USD trading close to 13.5% lower this year we see a correction towards the end of the active trading period this year as more than likely.

    Check out the trading chart

  10. #9
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    AUD/USD Forecast 11 Dec 2014

    Where is the Australian dollar going next?

    As the Australian unemployment rate has hit a decade high of 6.3% this morning in Asian trading, the country's economy created 42,700 jobs against an expectation predicting about 17,000. Despite this all the pair managed to do is revisit the highs around 0.8370 and present a put buying opportunity for vigilant traders.

    The main question in the AUD/USD pair is the usual one - where are we going next? While several bulls on the pair have been expecting it to hold above 0.8300 in the near term, we are still seeing the Australian dollar underperforming across the board, primarily due to concern about China.

    The case is no longer compelling to go long on the AUD/USD, but we have to note here that some big analysts are calling the bottom in this binary options forex pair. Morgan Stanley has announced yesterday that they are entering into a long position from 0.8300, targeting 0.8500.

    Check out the trading chart

  11. #10
    Solid Member Matthew Taylor's Avatar
    EUR/JPY Call Signal 28 Jan 2014

    When trading the EUR/JPY binary options pair, its worth being careful these days as the trends are changing very quickly hour to hour, however with a smaller amount of risk, we are keen to place a trade on the pair. In order to do so, the EUR/JPY pair will have to get to our call buying entry point around 133.70.

    In the aftermath of the announcement by the ECB last week which drove the EUR to new 11 year lows against the US dollar, the EUR/JPY pair fared no better, however since the beginning of the week, it has stabilized and the possibility for a move higher has increased dramatically. Buying daily calls around 133.50 is our preferred trade for today's 21:00 GMT expiry.

    Check on how to trade this signal

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