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  1. #1
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar

    Matrix Trading Diary !!!

    I think it would be best to explain what I do before I start entering trades here.

    My method uses a spreadsheet of predicted turn dates for various time frames and indicators to confirm the turns. The indicators I'm trying are the Stochastic and RSI. My time frame for trades is about a week depending on the next predicted turn date. Although I use currency pairs I will not use the same each time since the turn dates don't depend on the currency.

    The next turn date of eurusd is 25 Oct. However I think it has broken the down trend so the next turn will be above the low of 1.25006 made on 3 Oct.

    Eurgbp has just started a new downward leg on 10 Sept so the latest high on 8 Oct is a good entry in the trend direction.The trend on the weekly chart began a new downward leg on 7 Sept so the direction looks safe.

    I intend to open a down trade on Monday in eurgbp with a 1 week expiry although the expected time in the downtrend is 12 days.

  2. #2
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar
    Looking forward!
    “Don't believe anything you read on the net. Except this. Well, including this, I suppose.” ― Douglas Adams

  3. #3
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    I opened the trade at 0.7896 on Communitraders tonight. The price moved up today so that the entry is about at the resistance level. My expiry is 20 Oct and as I said when I opened the thread, I expect the fall to last until about 25 Oct.

    I feel a little cocky tonight because my predicted turn date for the start of this trade was 13 Oct and the price just made a new high today. I hope I don't regret it.

    I said last night that I thought eurusd had started a retracement and chose not to use it until I had more data. Thinking about it later I realised that the Stochastic oscillator was showing an upward diversion supporting my feeling.

    Thanks Martin, we'll see how it goes.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    Very interesting introduction. I’ll be following your diary.

  5. #5
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    Thanks LesterK, I hope you get some ideas to help your trading. You should find as I build up my record that the matrix turns often coincide with the signals given by your own indicators.

    The turn has not come as I thought yesterday. Judging by the Stochastic it may appear in the next day or two. This is the sort of dilemma that I was wanting to resolve by using indicators to provide extra support for a trade.

    My reading of the charts today is that the 4 hour chart has one more turn due this week, a high, which may well coincide with the high I was looking for on the daily chart. I say this because the 4 hour chart shows a 28 day cycle which ends this week according to the matrix theory. If the turn comes in today it would be a day late which is within the margin of error in the calculation of the average.

  6. #6
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    I'm hopeful today that we have had the turn and the price will fall from now on. The stochastic is trying to cross today and if it happens then the price should fall.

    It is a good time now to look at some of the lessons to be learned from this trade.
    I used the matrix predicted date for my entry. The stochastic indicator looked as if it would cross but just bounced off the signal line. I should have waited until the signal was in place.
    The interval between the start and end dates for this trade was 12 days. I think that it might be better to wait until I can place a trade close to the end date. It would help to keep me out of false entries but the other side of the coin is that the trade would be vulnerable to an early turn.
    I was used to trying to get my entry and exit right, but with the rise / fall trades it is not as necessary so I can wait until everything is right.
    Last edited by hecky3; 10-16-2014 at 07:17 PM.

  7. #7
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    The picture is a lot clearer now. The 4 hour chart has made a low below the previous low which confirms the high on 15 Oct. It has not fallen far enough yet to confirm the matrix high on the daily chart. The daily chart shows that the high did not go above the previous high confirming that the downtrend is still in place so I expect the fall to go below 0.77663 before the next turn.
    On the 4 hour and daily charts the price and Stochastic are falling. The turn was clearly visible and gave a good entry but the predicted end of the downtrend was 10 calendar days away so the choice of expiry was a compromise again.
    It has been informative to keep this diary. I have had to think about what I do when I set up a trade. Sometimes I haven't consciously gone through the process. Having to think about what I'm doing and why has made me focus more on what I want to achieve and has made me look at the process from a different perspective. For example the expiry date is much more important than the entry. Indicators and price action can give you a good entry but the matrix provides the exit.
    Last edited by hecky3; 10-18-2014 at 09:43 PM.

  8. #8
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    The trade expired last night out of the money though the price continued to fall today. I am still confident that the next turn will come at the end of the week. The predicted date is 25 Oct which is a Saturday. The turn will come either the Friday or Monday when the markets are open.
    The other prediction I stand by is that the price will fall below 0.77663 before the next turn. If that happens the downtrend is still in place.
    Last edited by hecky3; 10-24-2014 at 07:05 PM.

  9. #9
    Rookie Member ramonda's Avatar
    This is very exciting. I’m already curious if it’s going to turn out to be true.

  10. #10
    Active Member hecky3's Avatar
    Thanks Ramonda, I hope you continue to enjoy the story.

    I want to plan the next trade although both the stochastic and rsi are still falling.
    First I'll deal with the time interval. The current move is due to end on 25 Oct, which was Saturday and the markets were closed so the turn would be expected to arrive either on the Friday or Monday. It didn't come on Friday so I need to watch what happens tomorrow. The next turn date is 2 Nov, which is Sunday so the move could last until Monday 3 Nov if everything goes as expected. I will aim to have the trade expire on Friday but will not know how many days until the current move ends.

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