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  1. #1
    Rookie Member

    smile 3 Scottish referendum !!!

    Most will be aware of the vote next week . Forex ( hope not a dirty word ha ) Gapped 0.9% on most GB currency pairs on the week end and since been showing many break outs off low Bollinger band with engulfing candles ect on the daily charts .

    Latest UK book maker odds

    They rarely set they books 1-5 and are wrong . Good look to all

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Not sure about the outcome but I would bet too bearish on gbp pairs until it is done....

  3. #3
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    The pound remained mildly supported after a new survey on Scottish independence and showed that 53% of voters against secession.It is uncertain that the currency would an independent Scotland could use,as well as concerns about the national debt of Great Britain led to big sales pounds in the past week.

  4. #4
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    There are a lot of uncertainties about this referendum, its outcome and possible effects on the British Pound. It is already calculated a lot of downside movement but I think if the referendum is positively voted we can see few hundred pips more down.

  5. #5
    Rookie Member
    General Info ( food for thought)

    Great Britain or Little Britain?

    It seems fair to say that Scotland has never been so prominent in the minds of global investors. The 18 Sep referendum on Scottish independence has long been on the calendar but it is only the past week or so that the polls have shifted enough to raise the serious prospect of Scotland voting to leave the United Kingdom.

    Should Scotland vote ‘yes’, it is likely that negotiations would take place over many years. As a new nation, Scotland would not have a central bank, armed forces or border control. It would have a questionable financial system; it would have to negotiate its share of legacy UK debt and it could be forced to ‘sterling-ise’ as it tries to create a new currency. The combination of political independence and a shared currency would be a disaster in our view. Foreign investors would question the risks of remaining in a new country, with concerns over both fiscal and monetary policy. Already large banks have revealed plans to move their headquarters from Edinburgh to London in the event of independence. A yes vote could also force a general election in the UK and would clearly disrupt the UK economy.

    While there are significant unknowns about the event itself given the structure of the vote (e.g. 16 year olds allowed to vote but not expats), potential turnout and the very simple yes/ no question, the recent trend in the polls confirms the outcome will be extremely close. The YouGov poll last weekend which found 51-49% for ‘yes’ is still the only significant poll to give the Yes vote the lead. So we should not get too carried away. However, the poll clearly demonstrates a clear narrowing in views and this now means that this is a critical driver for the pound. Indeed GBP/USD was 1.6450 a week ago, sliding as far as 1.6052 this week (a low dating to Nov 2013) before new polls showed ‘no’ to still be ahead, providing some relief.

    Given the referendum takes place in the same week as the first of the ECB TLTROs and the FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to debate new language on interest rates, risks are for renewed selling of GBP/USD and EUR/USD at least until the referendum outcome is clear. A ‘no’ vote should see the pound squeeze higher as the Scottish exit risk premium is removed and EUR/GBP selling is likely to resume. But an improved USD mood should limit the bounce in cable as the Fed edges closer to monetary policy normalization.

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