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  1. #1
    Rookie Member

    Finding the Holy Grail. (And other thoughts) !!!

    First up, I'm a newbie too. And I've been going cross eyed reading article and threads, demoing strategies and watching so much youtube that I feel like I live there. So here's what I think I've worked out so far.

    1. Before looking for the Grail, do something simpler first. Square the circle, bridge the Bering Strait, go to Mars or broker peace in the Middle East. King Arthur lost a lot of knights looking for the damn thing and Indiana Jones dropped it into a chasm. It's gone and no longer exists. Deal with it.

    2. Understand at least 3 strategies. A ranging strategy for when the market is ranging, a trend strategy for when the market trends and a coffee strategy for when it's doing bugger all.

    3. It's not about making more ITM trades, but making less OTM trades, rather than learning when to enter, you learn when not to. All strategies give false signals and by learning and doing we start to think "I don't believe you" even when the indicators say "go".

    4. Don't use the full amount of your demo account. It might have $5,000 in it, but only use the top $100 or whatever you intend to use when you go live. That way you learn to think before risking $20. And you do feel the increase in stress when you've built the account up enough to increase your trade amounts.

    5. Institute money management from day 1 of the demo account. Treat it like the real thing. (Another reason to only use the top $100 or so.)

    6. There's a lot of really, REALLY knowledgeable people hanging around the forums. Read what they have to say and try to understand it. If you don't understand a concept then Google it and read up on it until you do.

    7. The experts can point you to great indicators and strategies but only experience can allow you to make them work. (See Point 3 above) Learn why a Bollinger Band is more than three lines on a graph.

    8. Even in demo, spread what you do. Don't take 4 trades on the same currency. Great if they win but if that one currency goes the wrong way then you lose 4 instead of 1. Taking 4 on the USD two days ago meant I lost 3 and drew 1 instead of losing just 1. That single mistake accounts for half my OTM trades in the last few days.

    9. Don't be cheap on the computer hardware. If you are intending to be serious then use serious tools. Just as a carpenter makes sure he has good chisels, make sure your computer is up to it. 2 screens really does make it easier. RAM is cheap and so are second hand screens.

    10 Do keep a damn record. Buy a book and each time you try a strategy note the indicators and the rules. (And stick to the bloody rules, you can't judge a strategy if you keep playing with the rules) Then make sure you record the Date, Time, Pair, Call/Put, Expiry and whether it was ITM, OTM or even.

    11. Almost all strategies look good when you look at the past, that doesn't mean that they can predict worth a damn. If you find yourself back testing and thinking "It can't be this easy, somebody would have seen it." It isn't and they did. It probably doesn't work.

    12. There is a "School" section here for a reason. Use it.

    13. The "Get rich Quick" programs aren't.

    Others can feel free to comment on or add to the list.

    P.S. I think I'm starting to get the hang of this. Out of the last 29 trades I had 18 ITM, 4 Evens and 7 OTM. If I hadn't made the silly mistake mentioned in Point 8 it would have been 18 ITM, 3 Even and 5 OTM for 26 trades, a much better result.
    Last edited by JohnB; 09-05-2014 at 11:40 AM.

  2. #2
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Wow Really impressive Intro JohnB. After all it is all about the money, isn’t it? But all of these 13 positions are vitally important for every trader to achieve level where he will be able to collect his profits without too much risk. I hope that here can start a great discussion!

  3. #3
    Junior Member
    I want to know is that is it real or just an idea?

  4. #4
    Veteran Member Dan21's Avatar
    This is a great way to make your intro! I am really impressed! We all know that there is no single Holly Grail but a lot of things we have to make in order to become successful. I think you mentioned all of the basic things here.

  5. #5
    Rookie Member ott123's Avatar
    Holy grail or not, I'm pushing on! I've tried several platforms these past days and it's about break even.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Great advises! Most people understand most of those after loosing a lot of money. Sadly sometimes you need to first fail in order for you to stop and listen to advises like that. Before you actually see yourself in a loss you just donít believe itís that simple.

  7. #7
    Veteran Member Optionguy's Avatar
    Manipulation by market makers should also be one of the points. It's daily reality and their activity can distort any trading strategy. Others points are really good.

  8. #8
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    If you search for Holy Grails you will find them! But are they really holly Ė thatís totally different question

  9. #9
    Junior Member KarrathaMick's Avatar
    Great post John, you sound like you have had a similar journey to myself, I agree with all your points and have come to pretty much the same conclusions, for me at the moment its just finding a reliable strategy that doesn't have me stuck in front of the computer 8 hours a day, I would like to get my trading done in a couple of hours in the morning and do my own thing for the rest of the day, I have tried sooooooo many of these systems and strategies from my research over the last 9 months or so and I'm still looking for something to give me enough of a fighting chance to make my living, I am almost there, keep posting, Mick out

  10. #10
    Rookie Member
    Thanks for the compliments. They are really appreciated.

    Balwant256, it's real and it's what I've seen and thought about what I've read.

    I keep reading and the only real conclusion you can come to is that the "Holy Grail" system or strategy does not exist. There is no system or strategy that will work in all markets at all times. People really do need to come to terms with that reality.

    People should also understand that there is no need for it to exist. The hints for that are in every forum where strategies and money management are discussed.

    Take a theoretical situation where you get a 70% return on a win and 0% on a loss. You have a strategy that is 70% ITM. Assume you have an account balance of $200 and are going to place $10 trades using sensible MM. So every 10 trades your wins get you $49 and your losses cost you $30, a profit of $19. We'll further say that the strategy you use gives 10 opportunities per day. You've made $19 congratulations. While it doesn't sound like much it's a 9.5% return on a $200 investment in one day and that my friends is freaking awesome.

    On those rates you will double your money every two weeks, so in 2 months the $200 will grow to over $3,000. Using exactly the same MM rules as you did at the beginning you would be placing $150 trades for a profit of about $280 per day or around $1200 per week.

    This is what the mathematics says will happen. People can run the numbers themselves if they want, but the results won't change. We don't need a "Holy Grail", we just need something reasonably consistent.

    So what goes wrong? Why do so many fail? Because we are human. We "Revenge trade" when we make a loss. We skip a step or three of the rules when things are going well. We rush trades and don't take a second to make sure we set the expiry for the correct period. We get emotional and we simply screw up. And we are impatient.

    There are plenty of strategies out there that could provide 10 opportunities in two hours over 6 currency pairs provided the market is right. But a stat for a ranging market that provided 30 opportunities with 100% ITM is utterly useless if the market isn't ranging. That's why we sit at the computer screen all day. A marvellous strat might allow us to make a weeks wage in an hour, but that hour might be 10 AM - 11AM today and 5 PM - 6 PM tomorrow. And there is no way to predict it. So we sit and wait.

    Another thing to consider is expectations. Trading can provide very good money but nothing comes without proportional effort. We can't earn full time money without putting in the full time hours.

    If I've offended anybody or come across as full of myself I apologise as that isn't what I meant to do. What I'm writing is simply how I've interpreted what I've read.

    Happy trading everybody.

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