Poll: Which hypothesis about market behaviour you think is best related to the reality?

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  1. #1
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar

    Which hypothesis about market behaviour you think is most closely related to the real !!!

    Which of the following hypothesis best fit your believes about the market reality. Give your answer and comment on it!

  2. #2
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Here is my view the market is reflective – sometimes close to efficient but never absolutely efficient - there are always some deviations in one or other direction of the real value of the asset that is purely reflexive action.

    I am also supporter of the wave theory. It is very good explanation of almost all movements on the market – from very short term to very long term. The market is actually moving in the fractal order so every move from smaller order is a similar snapshot of the bigger order. It is very interesting subject and if you want to read more I would recommend two books by a French mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Me too I am a big fan of market reflexivity hypothesis. It is one of the best describing theories for the market actions.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    I think markets are mostly efficient. Most of the time they react very fast to all the news and economic data! This way it only seems easy to predict them but actually it is not. There are only some specific situations when the markets are predictable and you can react in advance. Best moments are when you have a strong up trending conditions and the market is known in advance that it will move even higher or lower.

  5. #5
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    I'd choose reflexivity, there's always reason to price movement,
    I also think wave hypothesis relevant to market as market move with rhyme and the rhyme will stop when something big enough to turn it around.

  6. #6
    Rookie Member
    Quote Originally Posted by hchandra View Post
    I'd choose reflexivity, there's always reason to price movement,
    I also think wave hypothesis relevant to market as market move with rhyme and the rhyme will stop when something big enough to turn it around.
    I have the same opinion as well ..

  7. #7
    Senior Member dorrian's Avatar
    Most of the time markets are efficient and that’s why I think this hypothesis is best for me!

  8. #8
    Solid Member
    So far I am mostly convinced in the wave theory.

  9. #9
    Active Member
    I am a newbie but the reflexivity hypothesis sounds reasonable to me. After all in all sciences one thing leads to another and there are laws for the impact of the connection on either that are relatively stable. Thus, I believe that you can mark some global events that sound reasonably connected to other (2nd order events) and follow them in order to make conclusions about the 2nd order events which can show you if the market would go up or down with higher probability than the wave theory affords.

  10. #10
    Junior Member
    I am also one of the big fans of market reflexivity hypothesis.

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