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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    Contrarian Plays !!!

    For this thread, let’s give the best examples of where you think the market has gone too far, too fast. The best trade ideas will require an understanding of fundamental analysis in addition to technical analysis. Contrarian trades and the most difficult, and the most “ballsy.” This is the area where individual traders fight against the rest of the market, and this is where almost all of my own trading success has been made. Remember the rules of supply and demand, and let’s get started in exposing areas where the market has gone idiotic.

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    This is going to be a great thread. I can't believe we haven't started one yet. Trading on Monday was basically contrarian. The market thought all hell was going to break loose in the Ukraine, equities dropped, commodities popped and I faded the whole lot. Tuesday Putin took the fear out of the market and now things are back to normal and new highs in the S&P.

    What plays are you looking at now? Tesla is pretty wild, sooner or later the wind will fall out of those sails.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    On Thursday the market will be shaken. Let's see what Draghi will say.

  4. #4
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    This will be great thread to discuss counter trade, there are always two sides of coin and successful contrarian strategy reward really awesome.

    Will it be contrarian if we say EUR will fall, because of people talking about devastating deflation to appear in Eurozone,
    the deflation that is the same with what happen in Japan.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hchandra View Post
    This will be great thread to discuss counter trade, there are always two sides of coin and successful contrarian strategy reward really awesome.

    Will it be contrarian if we say EUR will fall, because of people talking about devastating deflation to appear in Eurozone,
    the deflation that is the same with what happen in Japan.
    This is an interesting point to raise because I would actually agree with you over the longer term. I think the market has overly discounted the broader effects of the European debt crisis and most now assume that it is completely over. Economies never turn around that quickly and overall unemployment rates are still excessive in many areas. Shorter term, the market is working in the opposite direction as the ECB seems to think rising inflation is likely.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    This is going to be a great thread. I can't believe we haven't started one yet. Trading on Monday was basically contrarian. The market thought all hell was going to break loose in the Ukraine, equities dropped, commodities popped and I faded the whole lot. Tuesday Putin took the fear out of the market and now things are back to normal and new highs in the S&P.

    What plays are you looking at now? Tesla is pretty wild, sooner or later the wind will fall out of those sails.
    Stocks like Tesla make excellent contrarian plays. While I do love the company, markets always need to revert to their averages and this makes a stock like Tesla highly vulnerable. More immediately, I am waiting for a rise into the 1.70s in the GBP/USD to start getting aggressively bearish. Will probably post an analysis this weekend.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    Stocks like Tesla make excellent contrarian plays. While I do love the company, markets always need to revert to their averages and this makes a stock like Tesla highly vulnerable. More immediately, I am waiting for a rise into the 1.70s in the GBP/USD to start getting aggressively bearish. Will probably post an analysis this weekend.
    Sweet, Im still enjoying my Putin calls. ;-)

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    Sweet, Im still enjoying my Putin calls. ;-)
    Is it time for a "in soviet Russia" joke?
    In soviet Russia we have Put-in our Calls.

  9. #9
    Active Member karin's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Okane View Post
    Is it time for a "in soviet Russia" joke?
    In soviet Russia we have Put-in our Calls.
    It may sound ironic, but I was raised in Soviet Union and have some sad memories about that era and remember once my parents had some visitors from West and guess what the KGB guys visited us to check if everything is ok and they told us that we shouldn't be in touch with them anymore…it’s not a joke, unfortunately and now Putin is feeling nostalgic and wants that era back...

  10. #10
    Veteran Member Dan21's Avatar
    That’s really sad Karin. I am sure this era will never come back, but Putin attempt are really impressive. I am happy that I don’t live close to him

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