The dollar mostly rose against major currencies after data released which showed that the index of small business optimism in the US increased in the fourth quarter.Official data showed that the index of small business optimism in the US increased in the fourth quarter to 105.8 points from 98.4 in the previous quarter.Analysts had expected growth to 99.6 points.
USD/JPY climbed to 116.03.Household confidence index in Japan rose in December to 43.1 points from 40.9 in the previous month. Economists had expected growth to 41.3 points.AUD/USD dropped to 0.7353. Retail sales in Australia rose in December by 0.2% after rising 0.5% in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of 0.4%.
The dollar rose against the euro. Investors focused the first official press conference of the newly elected US president. Trump promised to take measures to encourage the strengthening of inflation and economic growth.The focus of investors will be the first press conference of the newly elected President. EUR / USD fell to 1.0454. Industrial production in Spain rose in November by 3.2% after rising 0.6% in the previous month, a predicted growth of 1.0%.
The report in the UK showed that production rose in November by 1.3%. It expected growth of 0.5% after falling 1.0% in the previous month. On an annual basis it grew at a rate of 1.2%, and an estimated increase of 0.4%, after falling 0.5% in October. Industrial production in the UK rose by 2.1%, after falling 1.1% in the previous month. Economists predicted growth of 0.8%. GBP/JPY rose to 141.48.
The price of gold has continued to rise.A member of the Committee of the Federal Reserve Open Market Patrick Harker gave a speech. He said that the US economy exerts enough power for three announced an increase in interest rates in 2017. They are scheduled talk three member Committee of the Federal Reserve Open Market.
The US dollar has erased losses against other major currencies. Retail sales in the US rose in December by 0.6% after rising from 0.2% in the previous month. It expected to grow by 0.7%. Core retail sales rose 0.2% after rising 0.3% in the previous month. It predicted growth of 0.5%. Producer price inflation in the US rose in December by 0.3% after rising 0.4% in the previous month.It was in line with forecasts of analysts. Core producer price inflation rose in December by 0.2% after rising 0.4% in the previous month.It expected to grow 0.1%.USD/CAD rose to 1.3151.
The euro rose against other major currencies.Data released showed that the index of wholesale prices in Germany rose in December.Official data showed that the index of wholesale prices in Germany rose in December by 1.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month and expected to grow by 0.3%. EUR/GBP climbed to 0.8737. Euro Index rose to 87.30.
Monday 16th January
It will be published Trade Balance for euro. Bank of England Carney will be spoken.
Tuesday 17th January
It will be released Consumer Price Index for pound and GDT Price Index for New Zealand dollar.The UK Prime Minister May will be spoken.
Wednesday 18th January
It will be published Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change for pound,Consumer Price Index,Core Consumer Price Index for the US dollar, Overnight Rate for Canadian dollar, Employment Change, Unmeployment Rate for Australian dollar. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be spoken.
Thursday 19th January
It will be released Minimum Bid Rate for euro,Manufacturing Sales for Canadian dollar,Building Permits,Philly Manufacturing Index,Unemployment Clams,Crude Oil Inventories for the US dollar and Chinese GDP and Industrial Production.
Friday 20th January
It will be published Retail Sales for pound, Consumer Price Index and Core Retail Sales for Canadian dollar.
My trading tips
I’m put on EUR/USD this week.
I’m call option on USD/JPY this week.
I’m put option on GBP/USD this week.
I’m put option on AUD/USD this week.
I’m call option on USD/CAD this week.
The ECB will try the euro down once again. The inauguration of Trump at the end could raise expectations for fiscal stimulus.
Fiscal syimulus cuts tax could push higher the currency pair USD/JPY this week.
Exellent reuslts in the US economy can push lower the currency pair GBP/USD this week.
Worse than expected data in the Australian labor market will push lower the currency pair AUD/USD. Also in needs to be watched Chinese GDP and Industrial Production this week.
Market sentiment is positive for the US dollar this week.
In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on the inauguration of the newly elected President of the US, Donald Trump will be held on Friday.
Tuesday 17th January
The British Prime Minister Theresa May to talk about Brexit.It was recently announced that the Mey is ready to accept the so-called hard Brexit. It means out of the single market,the European Customs Union and the European Court of Justice, in order to regain control over immigration in the European Union.
During this week, several officials will say the Fed, but investors are hoping for signals about the pace of raising interest rates in the coming months. On Tuesday will speak presidents of the Fed in New York and San Francisco while Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday.
Thirsday 19th January
The European Central Bank held a monthly meeting. It will be announced the latest decision on interest rate. Analysts predict that there will be no change in monetary policy after the central bank surprised the market by announcing that the scope of the program to reduce monthly bond purchases to 60 billion euros as of April, with 80 billion euros it currently stands.
Friday 20th January
China will announce the data on gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.The report is expected to show growth in the second largest economy in the world at 6.7%.
Ten weeks after winning the presidential election, Donald Trump will be sworn in Washington as the 45th President of the US.
After Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 8 the dollar rose to the highest level for 14 years. It was expected that his administration will speed up economic growth and inflation in the US.The Fed could accelerate the pace of rate hikes in 2017.
The first press conference Donald Trump was disappointing investors.There wasn’t one answer to important questions.The pound weakened after it was announced that the UK might be described as a complete break with the EU.GBP/USD fell to 1.2075.USD/CHF rose to 1.0104.
The US dollar fell against the Australian dollar. The index of manufacturing in New York state fell in in December to 6.50 from 9.00 points in the previous month while economists predicted a fall of 8.50 points.
AUD/USD jumped to 0.7547.The number of new home loans in Australia rose in December by 0.9% after falling 0.8% in the previous month.It was in line with expectations of analysts. Dollar index fell 1.14% to 100.37 index points.
Consumer price inflation in the US rose in December by 0.3% in line with expectations after rising 0.2% in the previous month.Inflation basic price rose 0.2%, after rising 0.2% also in November.It was in line with the forecasts of economists.On annually basis recorded growth of 2.1%, after rising 1.7%, it was in accordance with expectations.Consumer price inflation in the euro zone remained unchanged in December at 1.15%.It was in line with expectations. EUR/USD fell to 1.0667.
The unemployment rate in the UK was unchanged in December at 4.8%.Average hourly earnings in the UK rose in December by 2.8% after rising 2.6% in the previous month, while the predicted growth of 2.6%.A number of unemployed in UK fell in December to 10100 persons after rising 1300 in the previous month and expected to rise to 5000 persons.GBP/JPY jumped to 139.99.
The US currency was supported after the president of the Fed Yellen said that the central bank should continue to gradually increase interest rates.However, the US dollar was under pressure ahead of the inauguration of the new US president Donald Trump.
Germany's producer price index rose in December to 0.4% from 0.3% in the previous month.It was in line with forecasts of analysts.Retail sales in the UK fell in December by 1.9% after falling 0.1% in the previous month.Analysts expected a decline of 0.15.Core retail sales excludes car sales fell 2.0% in December, while the predicted decrease of 0.3%. EUR/GBP fell to 0.8630.
Consumer price inflation in Canada fell in December by 0.2% after falling 0.4% in the previous month compared to expectations for a decline of 0.1%.Retail sales in Canada rose in December by 0.2% after rising 1.2% in the previous month predicted growth of 0.5%.USD/CAD rose to 1.3388.