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  1. #861
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Kolyo View Post
    Only Oil is not playing out as expected, everything else from your analysis Michael seems quite solid! I should start following your calls more often
    I got 3 out of 5 this week, not too bad. ;-)

  2. #862
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Ok, I'm back from a beach vacation and ready to trade. I'm looking at the charts right now and about to make my weekly tips. Be ready, here they come.

  3. #863
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    A brand new month !!!

    It's the first of August and a brand new month. Earnings season is unfolding in a favorable way except for a few high profile misses, we're on tap for some big data releases, inflation is still tracking low and all is well with the world. Today's futures trading is pretty bullish, as am I, and new highs are in the cards.

    SPX – the SPX is being driven by economic and earnings tailwinds, led higher by labor markets and wages. The combination has us at all time highs and if my demographic outlook is right we'll keep seeing news highs periodically for the next few years. I'm bullish and trading calls this week. Spot traders should wait for weakness and buy at near term support with an end of week or 2-3 day expiry. NADEX traders look to buy the 2468.50 strike at $55, end of week.

    Gold – Gold is moving higher on economic data. The data is positive but tepid and undermining dollar strength. Gold could easily go to test highs near $1300 provided this weeks data, and is hasn't been so far, isn't too hot. I'm bullish on gold and buying calls, spot traders enter on weakness with end of week expiry. NADEX traders look to buy the $1274.50 at $47, or below $50 if you can.

    Oil – Oil is moving higher on a shift in near term fundamentals. The shift is leading to a seasonal down turn in storage levels but does not alter the supply/demand situation. And then there is Venezuela which is still in major upheaval. I'm bullish on oil and trading a call. Spot traders enter below $50, NADEX traders look to buy the $50.75 strike at $10. Because of how the strikes lay and the price of oil it was the best choice, it's a long shot for an ITM but poised to make big % returns on any upside movement in the price of oil.

    EUR/USD – The dollar is losing steam on declining FOMC outlook and allowing the EURO to rise on firming ECB outlook. I'm bullish on the pair and trading calls. Spot traders can enter below 1.8200 with a 3 to 5 day target for expiry. NADEX traders look to buy the 1.8250 at $50 or less, end of week.

    USD/JPY – Once again, the dollar is foundering on declining FOMC outlook and allowing the yen to trade sideways within a range. The USD/JPY pair is showing signs of topping within that range so I am bearish on it. Spot traders can enter above 110.45. NADEX traders look to sell the 110.25 strike at $50 or higher.

  4. #864
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    The euro strengthened against the dollar.The euro is exchanged at $1.1822.It shows a weakening of the dollar by 0.18%.Today,there are no major economic news from the euro zone.The ADP's employment status report will be published in the US two days before the official government report.

    The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar.Data showed a lower growth rate of money supply in circulation 15.6% instead of 16.6%. Currency pair is traded at the level of 110.72 yen per dollar. It makes the dollar stronger by 0.33% against the yen by 0.33%.

    The price of gold fell. There is chance of around 30% that it would be an increase in the Fed’s interest rate in December.The price of gold was trading $1266 an ounce.

    The price of crude oil dropped.The last report showed of 1.78 million barrels while a 2.9 million drop was expected.The government report will be published. Crude oil price fell 0.73% and it was traded by $48.80 per barrel.
    US stocks rose on Tuesday.The S&P500 added 0.24% and closed to 2476 points.Boeing and Goldman Saks have grown the most of the company's stocks. Citigroup(+1.68%),Chevron(+1.46%) and Bank of America(+ 1.37%) were the winners. The losers were General Electric(-0.66%) and Coca-Cola -0.31% In the second quarter,Apple reported revenues of $ 45.4 billion or 7.2% more than in the same period last year. Apple's net profit amounted to $8.7 billion up 11.8% from the same period last year.

  5. #865
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    TIps from the Geek 8-7-2017.... The Dow Sets New All Time Highs !!!

    Upward Momentum In Play

    The market is moving higher on economic data and earnings. There is some volatility due to politics, sentiment, FOMC outlook, global GDP, localized GDP and more but the underlying trends remain positive. Last week's NFP reinforces my outlook for equities and may have perhaps provided an opportunity in the forex world but more on that later.

    SPX/S&P 500/US 500 – the US equities market is trending higher and making new all time highs just about every week. The SPX is no different and moving up on positive conditions and positive outlook. I am bullish on the index this week and trading calls. Spot traders can enter on intraday weakness with end of week target expiry. NADEX traders look to buy the 2476.50 strike at $45, end of week.

    Gold – Gold prices fell hard on the NFP news and dollar strength but was the move warranted? I don't really think so, the NFP did not intensify FOMC outlook only set the stage for it maybe doing so later on down the road. I think the dollar and gold may return to retest recent lows/highs. Highs in golds case. I am bullish this week looking for a snap back from last week's knee jerk sell-off. Spot traders enter calls below $1265, NADEX traders look to buy the $1273.50 at $25 with end of week expiry. This is a shoot-for-the-moon type of trade assuming a bounce back could be sharp, it may also be quick so I will have to be ready to sell when/if profits show.

    Oil/WTI – Oil prices are still supported by near-term fundamental changes. Supply remains high but a decline in rig counts and strong US data suggest tightening markets. I am bullish on oil this week, trading calls. Spot traders can enter on today's weakness, NADEX traders look to buy the 49.25 strike at $40, end of week.

    EUR/USD – The dollar gained a lot of strength last week on the NFP, the NFP was strong but not strong enough to really bolster FOMC outlook so I ask why the dollar got so strong in response? This is, to me, a knee jerk reaction and opportunity for euro bulls to get in at a great price. I am bullish on this pair this week, trading calls. Spot traders enter below 1.1785 with end of week expiry, NADEX traders look to buy the 1.1825 strike at $40 with end of week expiry.

    USD/JPY – The yen lost ground to the dollar last week but all it really did was confirm support at the bottom of a trading range. Based on my view of the dollar reaction last week I would say that the support would be tested again, the indicators disagree however so I must trade the signal I see. The dollar looks like it will rise within the range. I am bullish on the pair this week and looking to buy calls. Spot traders enter below 110.80 with end of week expiry, NADEX traders look to buy the $110.75 at $58 (the market price I received).

  6. #866
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    The euro has weakened against the US dollar.In in the US preliminary data on productivity outside of agriculture will be published.It includes the costs of the labor force in the second quarter.It can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. EUR/USD fell by 0.14%.

    The US dollar has weakened against the Japanese yen. Political tensions over the nuclear program in North Korea followed by the sharp rhetoric of this country and the US pushed lower USD/JPY.As a reaction safe investments have recorded demand growth for yen.It has been reflected in the strengthening of the Japanese yen. The dollar weakened against the yen by 0.34%.

    The price of gold has increased. Safe investments have seen an increase in Asian trade because of geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the United States.The price of gold rose by 0.71%.

    The price of crude oil fell. A report by the US Petroleum Institute showed a decline in crude oil stocks. It expects the price of oil weakened because of investors' concerns about OPEC's ability to reduce global crude oil production US government report crude oil stocks will publish.It can be further reflected in the price of crude oil. Crude oil prices fell by 0.31%.

    The US stock market fell on Monday as a tension response between North Korea and the US.The winners were Apple(+0.80%) and Walt Disney(+0.59%). The losers were Merck& Company(-0.83%) and Nike (-0.55%).

  7. #867
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    Tips From The Geek 8-14-2017 !!!

    A Big Week, But When Is It Not?

    It's a big week for the markets, but when is not? This week though is really big because it holds a plethora of economic data that is guaranteed to move markets. On the US front there is retail sales and some other gauges of manufacturing and business, on the international front there is important GDP and inflation data from the EU and Germany. And don't let me forget about the FOMC minutes due out on Wednesday. Political tensions have eased over the weekend, allowing the equities markets to rise, but the shadow of North Korea still hangs over the market and there is a bit of time before the next earnings seasons comes back around.

    S&P 500/SPX/US 500 – The short and long term trends are up but near term indications are for correction. The Monday morning rise in futures is relief rally, in my opinion, and to be faded not chased. I am bearish this week and trading puts. Spot traders enter above 2,450, NADEX traders I have a twist for you. This week I'm straddling the US 500 buying the 2566.50 at $40, end of week, and selling he 2448.50 at $60, end of week, because it's just too hard to say for sure what is going to happen. So long as prices move this position will make money, the risk is that prices will close in the mid point of the range between 2448.50 and 2566.50. Price is currently in the midpoint of this range and will need to move about 8 to 10 points for profitability. I will be looking to close either position mid week if profits are showing and market conditions etc.

    Oil – Oil prices fell a bit in early Monday trading on US rig counts and shaky global demand. This put WTI below $48 and in the buying zone for near term bulls looking for prices to continue pushing up against resistance at $50. I am bullish on oil near term and trading a call. Spot traders enter below $48.50, NADEX traders look to buy the $48.75 strike, end of week, at $45.

    Gold – Gold prices fell back on easing safe haven flows but prices are underpinned by the dollar. The dollar is on a down trend and pressured lower by easing FOMC rate hike time line expectations and improving world economics. I am using today's pull back as an entry point for calls. Spot traders look to buy calls below $1290, end of week. NADEX traders buy the $1292.50 strike, end of week, at $40.

    EUR/USD – This pair is rising to multi year highs on slow, sluggish and tepid US growth and slowly improving EU growth. This week is big for news that could drive this pair further apart and to new highs. I am trading calls, spot traders enter below 1.1800, end of week. NADEX traders look to buy the 1.1825 strike at $45, end of week.

    USD/JPY – This pair is harder to call, safe haven flows are leaving the yen but the currency is also supported by improving economics and better than expected GDP. Nonetheless I am trading a put this week, looking for the pair to fall. Spot traders look to buy above 109.50, NADEX traders look to sell the 109.25 strike, end of week, at $60.

  8. #868
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    The euro was trading and it shows stagnation. A preliminary data on the growth of GDP in the euro zone was published. It was unchanged. It is expected to publish notes from the last meeting of the Fed. We should give more indications about whether the end of the year will be increased interest rates by the Fed.

    The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trade. In the US will publish information on the number of building permits and the number of houses under construction. It can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. The dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen by 0.02%.

    Gold prices weakened slightly. The price of this precious metal depends on notes of a meeting of the Fed. It can provide additional information about the direction of monetary policy of the institution. Gold prices fell by 0.10%.

    Crude oil prices rose by 0.38%. The US Petroleum Institute released stocks fell more than expected.It had a positive impact on the growth of this energy.The US government will report on crude oil stocks in the US that could further affect the price.

    Stock markets mostly fell slightly on Tuesday.President Donald Trump wanted the public to provide more details about his administration's plans to improve infrastructure. The S & P500 dropped 0.05% and closed to 2465 points. The winners were Apple (+1.09%), Coca-Cola (+ 0.85%) and Visa (+ 0.75%). The losers were AT & T (-0.88%) and Microsoft (-0.5%).

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