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U.S. Data Continues To Impress

S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 1780
Expiration = One Week


The rising tide of economic data also raised the level of speculation over whether the FOMC will taper or not. Monday’s data was more of the same but yet the markets surged more than 1% at the open. U.S. industrial production climbed nearly double the expectation to reach a 12 month high at the same time that PMI data from around the world is showing growth. This data should have fueled the expectation that the Fed would taper this week but it did not. What is shows is that the retail investor is not afraid of the taper, as they shouldn’t be. Tapering means the U.S. economy is on stable footing and that is good for the markets.

The last two weeks have brought the S&P 500 down to a one month low. The market is now sitting on the support of the short term 30 day EMA and a potential area of support. There is some evidence that the bearish moves over the past month have been gaining strength but the fact they have not been able to break through support yet is a sign of future bullishness. The only thing standing in the way at this time is the FOMC. Even though I don’t think they will taper we just won’t know until Wednesday afternoon. Until then there may be some volatility around the 30 day EMA. I am trading a no-taper stance. I am bullish, trading calls on the SPX with a target entry below 1780 and one week until expiration.



German Expansion Leads EU

DAX
Call/Put = Put
Entry = Below 9160
Expiration = One Week


The German economy is still expanding. Flash PMI data from this nation was a little light but still above the expansionary 50 level. The better news is that despite a drop in French PMI the greater EU region was still able to expand and faster than the estimates. This is a good sign for the EU and other world markets. I am bullish on the DAX at this level and expect it to rise following the FOMC meeting, unless they scare the market with something unexpected. I am trading calls on the DAX with a target entry below 9160 and one week until expiration.



Be Wary Of Gold

Gold
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Above $1235
Expiration = One Week



Gold trading remains volatile. The metal has been testing the upper resistance of $1250 and the lower support near the $1225 level for over two weeks. Today the metal is once again approaching the $1250 level but looks very weak going into the FOMC meeting. I have little faith the Fed will give traders a reason to buy gold at this time and am still bearish on this asset. I am trading a put with one week until expiry and a target entry above $1235.