Page 1 of 7 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 68
  1. #1
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar

    15-30 Minute expiry Strategy-test !!!

    Hello!
    I am currently testing this new... if you can call it strategy.
    I need some feedback, maybe someone has already tested this
    and can tell me to just let it go or how to make it better!
    First let me tell you about my set up and then I'll explain how I trade it.
    You can check the pictures I've uploaded in my Album or below.

    Anyway, firstly I add 3 EMA's, 50 Golden one in the pic, 21 Aqua, 5 Violet.
    I also have some support and resistance lines.
    +Stochastic(5,3,3) with lines at 80 and 20.
    +RSI(4) with lines at 75, 50, 25

    That's it! I begin with monitoring the 15 minute chart. I look for a clear trend to show up.
    For example I see that the candles are all under the 50 EMA and the 21 EMA should be clearly below or above the 50 EMA.
    To confirm the trend I look for higher highs and higher lows cause I don't want to trade sideways moving trends. (or lower highs/lower lows)
    If a trend is getting the same highs and lows multiple times I'll stay away, too "sidewayish".
    Now lets assume I've just confirmed a downtrend like in the beginning of the 15minchart-picture I've uploaded,
    (unfortunately you can't see all the way the left side of the trend).
    Here I just wait for the RSI to touch or pass level 75, talking about Arrow #1 on the 15min chart.
    Now I switch over to the 5min chart to confirm a valid entry for my PUT trade. Look at picture called 5minchart now at the first red arrow!
    As you can see the candles were going up so we wait patiently to see where it will be overbought,
    5 minutes later a Doji is formed and it tells us to not trade until we know bears are in charge.
    The next 5 min candle is a bearish candle but the price was pushed up slightly, still we are not satisfied and we wait for yet another confirmation.
    And finally the 3 candle is also a bearish candle and at the end of or as soon as this candle is about to close we enter a PUT trade for 15-30 minutes.
    Anyway the goal is to wait for a couple of candles in the same direction you are trading before entering trades, IF everything else I mentioned also fits our strategy!
    Now if we go back to the 15min-picture again we will see that the trend then shifted to an uptrend
    cause we now have a higher high and candles crossed the 50 EMA and 21 EMA moved above the 50 EMA
    so now we wait for the RSI to touch or cross below 25 and then go over to the 5 minutes chart and wait for two bullish candles. See the other red arrow.

    Okay I don't know if I was clear enough... And sorry for the awful pictures.
    I haven't traded this a long time, the difficult part is the waiting and even more waiting...
    And also be ware of news, this might not work during important news periods.

    Glad if anyone can share some thoughts, feedbacks, critics, or if someone out there looking for a strategy
    to test on a demo account and then tell me how fast you blew your account, haha... hope not

    Here are the pics, they are also in my album as mentioned above.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	15MinChart.jpg 
Views:	1029 
Size:	100.1 KB 
ID:	1055Click image for larger version. 

Name:	5minchart.jpg 
Views:	1025 
Size:	97.1 KB 
ID:	1056

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Okay, no one has said anything yet. Well here are todays trades. Unfortunately I only took the GBP/USD,
    -WHY? Because I'm still a newbie and my mind is not quick enough to think:
    "ah you should look at the other X/USD pairs to see if you can get the same opportunity there"
    Anyway, a more experienced trader would have noticed this in time to take all three trades in the picture.
    As you can see I have also shown in the picture the RSI, look at AUD/USD specially... The RSI touched 70/75 many times = Many fake outs.
    But those were avoided cause we must look at the 15minute charts first to Identify a possible trend and see that RSI touches 75. If you (check for yourself)
    go back and look you'll see that RSI didn't behave the same way on the 15min chart. The 5 min is for entry only!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	TodayWin.jpg 
Views:	998 
Size:	93.2 KB 
ID:	1072
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails TodayWin.jpg  

  3. #3
    Specialist Member marc's Avatar
    Hi okane,

    I remained silent because I think you are doing quite fine so far .... just one word about trading all the usd-pairs in a bunch: if it works, of course it's nice to see running 3-4 trades in the money at the same time! ... but keep in mind, that your success rate surely will not be 100% ... and in such a case you will lose in a row, too!

  4. #4
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    Hello Okane,

    Your strategy presentation looks really great and the indicators shown on the picture are great too. Congratulation for the enthusiasm to prepare such a thread! It looks you are trading in the direction of the main trend and your indicators give you exactly the best moments to enter into the trade. Did you test this strategy on demo or backtesting conditions? I think it will produce pretty high percentage of wining trades.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marc View Post
    Hi okane,

    I remained silent because I think you are doing quite fine so far .... just one word about trading all the usd-pairs in a bunch: if it works, of course it's nice to see running 3-4 trades in the money at the same time! ... but keep in mind, that your success rate surely will not be 100% ... and in such a case you will lose in a row, too!
    Hey marc, thanks for your reply. You are absolutely correct, it's better to play it safe.
    In the long run I think it would be too risky. So I agree, I should take the one winner and be happy instead of being greedy!

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Deanfx View Post
    Hello Okane,

    Your strategy presentation looks really great and the indicators shown on the picture are great too. Congratulation for the enthusiasm to prepare such a thread! It looks you are trading in the direction of the main trend and your indicators give you exactly the best moments to enter into the trade. Did you test this strategy on demo or backtesting conditions? I think it will produce pretty high percentage of wining trades.
    Hey, Deanfx! Thanks for your reply.
    Yes, the goal is to only use the strategy in the direction of the main trend. At least in the main trend of the 15-minute chart.
    However this can sometimes be confusing when the 5-minute chart looks like it's about to start an uptrend (as you can see in the pictures above the highs have closed over my 50-EMA)
    but the 15-minute chart confirms a downtrend. This is why I use the 15-minute charts for trend confirmation and 5-minute charts for entry, hence my expirations are 15-30 minutes.

    The first thing I did was going through chart after chart and scroll forward in time, tried to figure out how I would have skipped the fake-outs.
    I soon realized that avoiding Doji candles and candles with almost no price movement were not good for confirmation (obviously!) which led to
    avoiding lots of fake-outs. So that was the backtesting part. I am also both demo-trading and taking small trades from time to time on the live accounts.
    It's still too early for me to say, I think from this point on much depends on my patience and me sticking to my own rules and not being greedy.
    Anyway I sure hope it will be profitable!

  7. #7
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    This is actually a very good strategy. In my opinion of course.
    Just like Marc said, trading all positively correlated pairs (EU, GU, AU) in the same direction can bring a smile on your face if they finish ITM, but I am sure you realize you are also increasing the risk so if it goes bad... it goes really bad. It depends on your risk appetite I guess. Anyway, I like the strategy and I think you will have great success with it IF you can stick to your own rules.
    All the best.

    PS: increasing the value of the RSI makes it smoother; you will have less signals but it will help you avoid some false signals

  8. #8
    Specialist Member pinoyoptions's Avatar
    Hi Okane,

    Your doing good, actually we have similar time expiration 15min is my favorite expiration and 5min time frame is my entry. adding up to our fellow trader's suggestion, I suggest you to look for important economic news, if you are trading while the news are just released it may affect your trade position. So in order to avoid such drastic move by economic report. You should include watching eco news prior to your asset and most traders are out from trading when there is a news coming in.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Bogdan G View Post
    This is actually a very good strategy. In my opinion of course.
    Just like Marc said, trading all positively correlated pairs (EU, GU, AU) in the same direction can bring a smile on your face if they finish ITM, but I am sure you realize you are also increasing the risk so if it goes bad... it goes really bad. It depends on your risk appetite I guess. Anyway, I like the strategy and I think you will have great success with it IF you can stick to your own rules.
    All the best.

    PS: increasing the value of the RSI makes it smoother; you will have less signals but it will help you avoid some false signals
    Thanks for your feedback. I agree, besides it's too hard for me to monitor and find 3 good entries at the same time...
    Good to know I'm on the right track.

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pinoyoptions View Post
    Hi Okane,

    Your doing good, actually we have similar time expiration 15min is my favorite expiration and 5min time frame is my entry. adding up to our fellow trader's suggestion, I suggest you to look for important economic news, if you are trading while the news are just released it may affect your trade position. So in order to avoid such drastic move by economic report. You should include watching eco news prior to your asset and most traders are out from trading when there is a news coming in.
    Thanks for your feedback. Yes the news can mess up this strategy, so I usually take a look at Forex Factory to see what's happening.
    About the time frames; sometimes I see that the 15-minute chart is just a... mess, meaning not much is happening in the market or no clear trend is detectable.
    It just doesn't say anything, this is when I look at the 5-minute chart which sometimes looks much better and seems like that I can apply my strategy to the 5-Minute chart instead!
    So whenever I see a "messy" 15-minute chart I look at the 5-minute chart. So I basically adapt the strategy to 5-min and 1-min for entry.
    I don't like being too restricted, cause sometimes the trend is just beautiful on the 5-minute chart and it doesn't feel right to let it go to waste. Haha!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
3