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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek – SP500, DAX, Gold 11/04-11/2013 !!!

    The new Top Five Tips of the Week from Michael are here.
    Check them out and find which are the best binary trading ideas for this week. Test them on CommuniTraders Binary Trading Platform!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.

    S&P 500 Rising

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 1770
    Expiration = One Week


    The U.S. markets have no where to go but up so long as the Fed keeps pushing money into the system. This should hold true so long as QE is on and tapering has not begun. Near term noise will drive the shorter term rallies and pull back until the underlying fundamentals are changed. This week we will finally get back on track as far as economic data is concerned. Shut down related delays have finally worked their way through the system with this Friday’s release of NFP the last on the list.

    Long term the SPX is very bullish. The index is making new highs and indicators are pointing up and rising. In the nearer term the index is holding at or near newly set all time highs with overbought conditions diminishing. There is some concern for the longer term because of divergences that have been developing. But as of now there is still no sign of reversal. The debt ceiling will reemerge as a barrier to the market in only two months and tapering will start sooner or later, either of which could . Until then I am bullish on the SPX and trading calls with weekly expiration and a target entry below 1770.



    DAX Getting A Cash Boost Too

    DAX
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 9050
    Expiration = One Week

    The DAX is rising on the global cash induced rally just like the U.S. markets. This week the ECB could give it another boost. The central bank is meeting on Thursday and expectations are high there will be an increase to QE policy already in place or at least an indication that it could increase in the near future. On the daily charts the index is pushing new highs on an almost daily basis with bullish indicators. I am trading calls with a target entry below 9050 and one week until expiration.



    Don’t Bet On Gold

    Gold
    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above $1315
    Expiration = One Week


    I am still not betting on higher gold prices. The metal is just too volatile and with QE so firmly in place prices are under heavy pressure. Adding to that is declining demand for the physical metal. India, one of the largest consumers of raw gold is turning to silver because they see it as a better value. Until QE ends I expect gold prices to remain at or near low the current low levels. In the near term I see gold retesting the recent lows below $1300. I am trading a put on gold with a target entry above $1315 and one week until expiration.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Interesting trade recs this week. I am not sure about getting back long at these levels though in the S&P 500, most of the recent strength has been based on earnings but those earnings were based on relatively weak expectations. Not sure how much longer that can sustain itself.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    Interesting trade recs this week. I am not sure about getting back long at these levels though in the S&P 500, most of the recent strength has been based on earnings but those earnings were based on relatively weak expectations. Not sure how much longer that can sustain itself.
    earnings this season has been a little wanky, especially the forward guidance. A lot of businesses, smaller business usually, are doing well and increasing guidance. The big high profile names that get all the attention are the ones giving poor guidance. Small business makes up more than 50% of our economy and employ nearly 75% of the workforce, if this sector is doing ok then I think the economy is still growing and could even surprise us in the near future. That plus the money flowing into the markets. I am very leery of the market at this level, QE cant sustain us forever just as you said. Until I see a different signal I'm sticking with the current trend. . . even if I am on extra alert for signs of reversal .

  4. #4
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Gold is a Put anytime it makes a bullish move...very bearish overall, low in demand and rated sell by many analysts and rating sources..

  5. #5
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Gold put option

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    s&p500 call option

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  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    So far all is good in the hood. Data strengthened dollar and weakened gold, the yen and the euro. The ecb lowered their rates boosting the DAX and also helping the gold and currency trades.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    SPX is in profit taking, should have seen it but did not think the awesome data would have caused it.

  8. #8
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    SPX is in profit taking, should have seen it but did not think the awesome data would have caused it.
    1 day bear shock, one day re entry, yesterday close seems a hint for new high next week.
    Awesome data indeed for NFP 204k Vs 121k enough to convince people, last month shutdown was nothing.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hchandra View Post
    1 day bear shock, one day re entry, yesterday close seems a hint for new high next week.
    Awesome data indeed for NFP 204k Vs 121k enough to convince people, last month shutdown was nothing.
    That data was freaking crazy, shut down what shut down.

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