Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: D1 gaps?

  1. #1
    Specialist Member marc's Avatar

    D1 gaps? !!!

    I just scrolled throw my EURUSD charts a bit and at the first glance it seems, that when you have a gap at day open the day closes in the direction of the gap

    So a question to the long-term traders here: is that just a coincindence for the last 2-3 months or could that be a high probability trade?

    Edit: I meant the weekly chart! ... so W1 not D1
    Last edited by marc; 10-31-2013 at 04:38 PM.

  2. #2
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marc View Post
    I just scrolled throw my EURUSD charts a bit and at the first glance it seems, that when you have a gap at day open the day closes in the direction of the gap

    So a question to the long-term traders here: is that just a coincindence for the last 2-3 months or could that be a high probability trade?
    Interesting. Never noticed but it is just a coincidence if it happened. Having said that, if it is happening for the past 2-3 months, then it is worth trying. To test its success probability, you must know time when it starts and most importantly an idea of length of time during which trend continues to move in one direction . If you can identify a common timeframe and length then it is tradeable for a BO trader.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member marc's Avatar
    I edited my post afterwards! ... so I am talking of a weekly signal! (if it IS even a valid signal! ... I haven't looked into that in detail) ... and being weekly, you could maybe sqeeze out 10-15 trades per year

    Not quite mind blowing ... however, if the probability is very high, it could be useful ... and maybe this gaps happen on other assets, too ...

    But ofc, it doesn't always work ... somewhere in history I have seen a huge doji which obviously would have closed OTM for about 6 lousy pipettes after rallying up and down for the whole week

  4. #4
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marc View Post
    I just scrolled throw my EURUSD charts a bit and at the first glance it seems, that when you have a gap at day open the day closes in the direction of the gap

    So a question to the long-term traders here: is that just a coincindence for the last 2-3 months or could that be a high probability trade?

    Edit: I meant the weekly chart! ... so W1 not D1
    D1 gaps at the beginning of the week are useful indications for market sentiment, but they are not as good in predictability as they initially seems to be. There is a rule that if the gap happen, then with very high probability the gap closes during the day one after that happen. The problem with binary options is that you never know when that will happen and thus you couldn’t predict the expiration time of your option.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member marc's Avatar
    Hmmm ... well, here is the EURUSD weekly for this year ...

    I just marked the gaps I could see with my naked eye, so I didn't hover over each candle to count the pips ...
    Maybe I don't get something here, but to me that looks like 8 wins and 1 loss ... !?

    @runneroption: I am talking of trades with expiration at the end of he week, ofc ... I don't care, if the gap closes on same day as long as the candle finishes ITM at the end of the week

    Edit: sorry for the bad image! ... I forgot to change the colors! ... but you will see it on your W1 charts for yourself anyway ...
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails eurusdweekly.jpg  
    Last edited by marc; 10-31-2013 at 10:27 PM.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member marc's Avatar
    Ok, on a quick check on some majors I see on my W1 charts following:

    Pair: ITM/OTM

    EURUSD: 8/1
    EURJPY: 12/2
    AUDUSD: 6/0
    GBPUSD: 8/0
    USDCHF: 9/0
    AUDJPY: 8/0
    USDJPY: 10/1
    GBPJPY: 6/1
    USDCAD: 10/0

    So ... and now please someone tell me what's wrong here ... !? ... do I overlook something? (it's late here and I am already too long in front of my computer ..)

    But if I counted correctly, that would have been 76 wins and 5 losses ... ok, in this year ... so, the gaps are rare, but the percentage seems to be great ...

  7. #7
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    You didnt overlook anything! You just take this seriously and pay attention to what happens on your charts.
    Yes, almost all gaps (weekly) will be closed sooner or later.
    Congrats for finding that out by yourself!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
3