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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Tip from the Geek - SP500, Gold, Apple Weekly Expiry - 10/28-11/04/2013 !!!

    The new Top Five Tips of the Week from Michael are here.
    Check them out and find which are the best binary trading ideas for this week. Test them on CommuniTraders Binary Trading Platform!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.

    S&P 500 Makes New Highs, Again

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 1760
    Expiration = Week


    Over the past few weeks I have been using one month expiry because of the uncertainty in near term direction, the shut down, the data and the upcoming FOMC meeting. This week I have shortened it to one week because the major hurdle (FOMC) is passing. I am bullish on the S&P, the data is OK, the earnings are OK and the Fed is likely not to begin the taper this month. While liquidity is pumping in the markets will rise. There is some danger of a correction at this time but the technicals support higher prices.

    The long term chart of weekly prices is currently showing a buy on both the stochastic and the MACD. Divergences are present but for now the longer term up trend is pushing higher. On the daily charts the index is above support with no resistance ahead except for market sentiment and the Fed. On the daily charts the index has broken above an ascending wedge pattern with bullish technicals. Adding Bollinger Bands to the analysis the index is trending up with some more room to go higher. I am trading a call on the SPX with a weekly expiry and target entry below 1760. Waiting until after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday may be a good idea but could also leave this trade untriggered.



    Gold…Fool’s Gold

    Gold
    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above $1350
    Expiration = One Week

    Gold prices are inflated on the possibility and expectation that the FOMC will not taper until next year. At the current high prices gold is looking like an attractive sell. The metal has not been able to break above long term resistance and has stalled out around the $1350 level. This is a classic case of buy the expectations and sell the news. Even if the FOMC were to reveal that tapering would not come until March it would only meet the already inflated expectations, not likely enough of a catalyst for gold buyers to step in. I am trading a put on Gold with one week until expiry and a target entry above $1350.



    Apple Earnings

    Apple
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below $530
    Expiration = One Week

    Apple reports earnings today (probably yesterday when y’all read this) and I expect good things. The iPhone 5 launch and new iPad models being two major reasons. Current earnings could be better than expected but it will be the future guidance that moves this stock. I am bullish on Apple going into the holidays and am playing call this week. I am using one week of expiration and a target entry below $530.

  2. #2
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    As long as Icahn is having a big stake in it, its most probably a buy....im much much sure that $600 mark is going to be broken soon in Apple..

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    It could, if apple reemerges as a market leader we could new highs on all the indices as well.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member TAllen1429's Avatar
    Hi Michael,

    Do you think that Apple will recover from its drop today by the end of this week?

    I thought the Q3 report was better-than-expected. Not sure why shares have slumped. I had adopted the same opinion as your tip.

    I will have to do more research into what is going on as I have been a tad busy today.

  5. #5
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TAllen1429 View Post
    Hi Michael,

    Do you think that Apple will recover from its drop today by the end of this week?

    I thought the Q3 report was better-than-expected. Not sure why shares have slumped. I had adopted the same opinion as your tip.

    I will have to do more research into what is going on as I have been a tad busy today.
    Yes apple results were better than expected but margin dropped. APL rose initially but when people saw drop in margin, it led to drop in share price. Most comments about APL's Q3 results were "Not so good", "Could be better" etc.
    IMO APL may not show any significant bullish trend in near future.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member TAllen1429's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Yes apple results were better than expected but margin dropped. APL rose initially but when people saw drop in margin, it led to drop in share price. Most comments about APL's Q3 results were "Not so good", "Could be better" etc.
    IMO APL may not show any significant bullish trend in near future.
    Thanks MJ, much appreciated. I opened a CALL option based on Apple on 14th October. Perhaps I should just take profits and head for the hills.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Apple marked a first annual decline in net income during the 11 years. The company had net income fall 11% to $37 billion for the entire fiscal year that ended in late September.

    In the third quarter there was a decrease in net profit by 8.6% to $7.5 billion, the third consecutive quarterly decline.

  8. #8
    Specialist Member TAllen1429's Avatar
    Cheers Milos, very helpful.

    My Apple CALL binary option expires at the 'end of the month', i.e. Thursday.

    I will try and take an early profit tomorrow before the release of the Fed decision. Hopefully, Apple will not gap down too much when the NYSE reopens at 9.30am EST.

    Lose about 30% by taking an early profit but at least will then sleep at night.

  9. #9
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Gold---->we could experience a zone of consolidation here before the next decisive break. I would say if it stays in the 1350 range it should attempt to break north,
    likewise beginning to slip below we may test 1333 area in the immediate sense...

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I think the gold trade is a "buy the expectations and sell the news" scenario. Apple is a psycho market. margins came down and that hurt the stock but I think it is just an entry point. Sales are still strong and the newer cheaper models could easily add revenue and profit gains through increased sales volume. I am definately a bull long term on apple ....

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